Why I Still Believe in Multifamily—Even in a Recession

chelsie382
Sep 2
2 min read

If you’ve been watching the news, it can feel like a scary time to invest. But here’s what history tells us: the commercial multifamily market has been through five major U.S. recessions in the past 40+ years—and bounced back every single time.

Let’s break it down:

📉 1980–1982: The Double Dip Recession

Rents didn’t grow much, but they didn’t crash either. After inflation came down, rent growth picked up again.

🏚️ 1990–1991: Real Estate Slump

Vacancies went up and rents slowed, but the market eventually recovered. By the late ‘90s, rent growth was back on track.

💻 2001: The Dot-Com Recession

Rents dropped about 6–7%, but recovered in just two years. By 2005, rents were higher than before the recession.

🏦 2008–2009: The Great Recession

This was one of the worst downturns. Rents fell 7–8%, but recovered in less than two years. Then they skyrocketed during the 2010s.

🦠 2020: COVID-19

Rents dipped briefly, but came back with record growth in 2021—up more than 10% nationwide. Cap rates stayed low, and property values stayed strong.

What’s the Pattern?

Every recession caused a temporary slowdown, but rents always bounced back—and kept going higher. Cap rates (used to measure value) typically went up during the downturns, but fell again when the economy recovered, pushing values even higher.

💡 Multifamily real estate has a long track record of coming back stronger.

So even if the market feels uncertain, history shows us this:

➡️ The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago.

➡️ The second-best time is today.

The key is buying smart:

Be conservative with your numbers

Stress test your financials

Surround yourself with a great team

Stick to the fundamentals

Whether we’re at the bottom of a cycle or climbing out, the data tells a powerful story: multifamily is built for the long game.

Let’s keep learning and growing together.

If you’ve stayed on the sidelines, maybe this is your sign to lean in. 📈